Samsung Electronics reclaimed a 39% share of the global DRAM market in the second quarter, its highest level since 2024, while SK Hynix’s share fell to 26% and Micron Technology climbed to 25%, according to a report by Counterpoint Research.
A year earlier, Samsung and SK Hynix had been level at 39% each. The shift, Counterpoint said, reflects the two companies’ very different product mixes. Samsung’s output is weighted toward conventional DRAM, the memory that goes into servers, PCs and phones, and conventional DRAM prices rose during the quarter. SK Hynix, by contrast, has bet heavily on HBM, the high-bandwidth memory that sits beside AI accelerators, and HBM prices fell from a year earlier as supply caught up with demand and competition intensified.
The result is that the two Korean companies, which have traded the top spot in memory for decades, are now separated by a strategic bet on the AI market. SK Hynix’s early lead in HBM made it the supplier of choice for Nvidia’s accelerators and the biggest beneficiary of the AI boom, but it also concentrated its revenue in the product whose prices fell this year. Samsung, slower to qualify its HBM with the largest customers, kept more of its capacity in the conventional DRAM market, where prices were rising. The report’s numbers are the arithmetic of that divergence.
Micron, the third player, has climbed to 25%, within a point of SK Hynix, and Counterpoint said it could overtake the Korean company to become the world’s second-largest DRAM supplier. Micron has pursued a balanced mix, selling both conventional DRAM and HBM, and its qualification wins with major customers have been more consistent than Samsung’s. The three-way race, which the industry calls a game of musical chairs, has produced a new order: Samsung on top, and the fight for second place suddenly competitive.
The price dynamics matter more than the market shares. Counterpoint expects HBM prices to rise sharply in 2027, when demand from the next generation of AI accelerators is projected to outstrip supply, and that forecast could flip the rankings again. SK Hynix, with its HBM-heavy mix, would be the biggest beneficiary of an HBM price surge, and Samsung’s conventional DRAM strength would become a liability if prices there soften. The companies are effectively making opposite bets on which memory will be scarce in two years.
The wild card is China. ChangXin Memory Technologies, known as CXMT, grew its DRAM revenue 716% from a year earlier, making it the fastest-growing supplier in the market, according to Counterpoint. The growth comes from a small base, and CXMT is barred from selling to some Western customers by export controls, but its capacity is expanding and its yields are improving. If the Chinese company can sustain the pace, the industry structure could shift again within a year, adding a fourth force to a market that has been dominated by three companies for decades.
Analysts said the report’s lesson is that the memory cycle rewards flexibility. The companies that can shift capacity between conventional DRAM and HBM, and between products, as prices move will capture the gains of each phase of the cycle. Samsung’s quarter shows the value of the conventional market; SK Hynix’s slide shows the cost of concentrating in one product; Micron’s climb shows the benefit of a balanced book; and CXMT’s growth shows what happens when a new entrant with government backing enters a market in an upcycle. The next two years will test each strategy again, and the 2027 HBM forecast will decide which one was right.
The report also puts numbers on a shift that has been building for two years. When the AI boom began, the memory industry’s future appeared to belong to HBM, and the companies that bet earliest, SK Hynix first among them, were rewarded with contracts from Nvidia and a place at the center of the most important supply chain in technology. But the memory market is cyclical in both directions, and the HBM bet, which looked brilliant in 2024, has carried a price in 2026: prices fell, competition arrived and the concentration left the company exposed.
The stakes of the three-way race go beyond bragging rights. Memory pricing is set by the balance of supply and demand, and the companies’ choices about capacity, product mix and customer contracts shape the prices everyone pays. A Samsung gaining share in conventional DRAM while HBM prices soften is a market adjusting to reality; a Micron overtaking SK Hynix would be the first time in years that the order of the top three changed. The 2027 HBM forecast, with prices expected to rise sharply, is the wild card that could shuffle the deck once more, and the companies are already positioning for it. For customers, the competition is good news: more suppliers fighting for orders tends to mean lower prices and better supply, whichever company wins the rankings.
