The pitch begins with a number that dwarfs the global economy: more than $30 trillion. Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude chatbot, plans to tell prospective investors that its potential market could exceed that figure, according to people familiar with the matter, a theoretical ceiling higher than the $28.5 trillion SpaceX cited in its own IPO prospectus.
The figure represents total addressable market, the maximum revenue a company could theoretically capture if it held 100% market share. Critics of such calculations note that TAM is a ceiling, not a forecast, and that no company in history has come close to the share implied by the exercise. But for Anthropic, which is preparing what could be one of the largest technology listings ever, the number helps anchor expectations before the roadshow begins.
The company’s financial projections are no less striking. According to earlier media reports, Anthropic expects revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028, and its IPO valuation target is about $2 trillion. Put together, the two numbers describe a company that believes AI can become the largest software market ever created, with Anthropic holding a commanding position in it.
Anthropic’s climb has been unusually fast. Founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers, including siblings Dario and Daniela Amodei, the company built its reputation on safety-focused research and then converted that reputation into commercial contracts. Claude has become a fixture in corporate IT departments, competing with OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Meta’s open-weights Llama models. The company’s revenue has grown at triple-digit rates, according to people familiar with its finances, though it remains far from profitable.
The comparison to SpaceX is deliberate. The rocket company, preparing for its own listing, cited a $28.5 trillion TAM built on everything from satellite internet to space stations and interplanetary logistics. Anthropic’s pitch, by contrast, rests on a single product category: software intelligence. If Claude and its successors can be embedded across every industry, from law to medicine to manufacturing, the market for AI services could indeed approach tens of trillions of dollars, the company’s argument goes.
Analysts are divided on how seriously to take the number. Some point out that the AI market’s growth is real and measurable: enterprises are spending on model inference, agent software, and the infrastructure to run it, and spending is accelerating. Others note that TAM math has a history of running ahead of actual revenue. The $30 trillion figure, they say, describes a world in which AI displaces most professional work and captures a large share of the value created, a world that may be decades away, if it arrives at all.
The IPO itself would test the market’s appetite for AI names. A $2 trillion valuation would put Anthropic on par with some of the world’s largest companies while generating revenue that is a small fraction of theirs. Investors who have pushed the stocks of Nvidia, Microsoft, and other AI beneficiaries to record highs will have to decide whether Anthropic’s growth trajectory justifies the multiple.
Regulatory questions also loom. Anthropic has structured itself as a public benefit corporation, a legal form that allows its board to weigh safety considerations alongside shareholder returns, and the company has said it plans to keep that structure after listing. Some governance experts say the arrangement could complicate the standard IPO playbook, in which boards answer to shareholders first. Others say it may prove attractive to investors who want exposure to AI without the governance anxiety that surrounds some of Anthropic’s rivals.
The comparison to SpaceX cuts the other way too. The rocket company’s prospectus drew public scrutiny over the gap between its theoretical market and its actual revenue, and the same scrutiny will follow Anthropic. Underwriters will want to know how much of the $30 trillion is addressable in the next five years, not the next fifty. People familiar with the preparations said the company’s answer will be built on enterprise demand for agentic software, where Claude has become a default choice in many corporate pilots.
The company’s own history gives it credibility in a category where rivals have stumbled. Anthropic has survived the industry’s cycles, kept its founders in place, and avoided the leadership turmoil that has marked some of its largest competitors. Investors who met the company’s management during early fundraising rounds describe a team unusually focused on research discipline, a trait that may matter more as the roadshow forces the company to defend its numbers in public.
For now, the pitch is being refined in private. The company has told early-stage investors that its total addressable market analysis runs to hundreds of pages, according to people who have seen parts of it, with scenario models ranging from conservative to aggressive. The one number that will be remembered, they said, is the one at the top: $30 trillion, and rising.
