Two Banks Arrange an AI Loan They Won’t Back

The financing package for Volta Infrastructure Holdings totals $5.01 billion. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs assembled it, and between them they are willing to guarantee $1.3 billion of that amount.

The rest, $3.71 billion tied to graphics processors, is being marketed on a best-efforts basis. The banks will sell the debt and earn a fee for doing so, but they hold no obligation to buy whatever investors decline. Commitments are due by 5 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.

The structure splits one borrower into two credits that behave nothing alike. The $1.3 billion tranche is a senior secured loan backed by cash collateral, supporting leases on data center space. The $3.71 billion tranche funds roughly 36,000 Nvidia chips. Both run six years, both were offered at 97 to 98 cents on the dollar, and neither carries a credit rating, according to data from PitchBook LCD. Their yields to maturity run from 11.21% to 11.75%.

The price is the part worth reading twice. In March, CoreWeave closed an $8.5 billion chip-backed facility that became the first of its kind to carry an investment-grade rating from Moody’s, priced at 225 basis points over SOFR. By July, a $2.6 billion CoreWeave loan had widened during its roadshow from 425 to 450 basis points to 550, producing a yield to maturity near 10.44%. Volta’s financing sits at the high end of that ladder, and it arrives without the rating that made the earlier deal easier to sell.

What the money buys is a data center complex in Norway operated by Bitdeer, the bitcoin miner that has converted part of its business to AI hosting. Anthropic has signed a six-year computing agreement for the site, according to people familiar with the arrangement. Volta itself was founded this year, and its investors include the venture firm a16z, Altimeter, the Dell Technologies founder Michael Dell and Nvidia. Nvidia is both a shareholder and the supplier of the collateral.

That dual role is the quiet complication. A lender secured by graphics processors is secured by an asset whose value depends on demand for compute, on the pace at which newer chips arrive, and on a secondary market that is thin even for equipment that is only two generations old. Rating agencies have treated such loans cautiously for that reason.

The banks’ caution is not unique to this deal. Goldman credit strategists led by Amanda Lynam wrote on Oct. 9 that the U.S. speculative-grade loan default rate would stay near 5% through 2027, with recovery rates around 56 cents on the dollar, down from 64 cents in 2022. Morgan Stanley has moved part of its data center exposure off its books through a significant risk transfer, and Blue Owl failed to raise third-party capital for a $4 billion CoreWeave data center project, according to Bloomberg.

Arranging a loan without underwriting it keeps the fee and sheds the risk, which is a rational choice for a bank whose shareholders judge it on return on tangible equity and whose regulators judge it on the capital it must hold against those assets. It also means the deal closes only if somebody else wants the paper. Private credit funds, insurers and Japanese life companies have been supplying that demand. A $42 billion senior secured facility backed by Broadcom and aimed at financing Anthropic’s compute launched for syndication last week, drawing Apollo, Blackstone and several insurers, according to IFR.

Analysts said the Volta package functions as a live test of how much of the artificial intelligence build-out private capital will fund at double-digit yields before it demands wider spreads or shorter tenors. If the GPU tranche clears at 11.21%, the market has answered that it will absorb what banks will not. If it has to widen, or shrink, the answer runs the other way, and the next developer in line will pay for it.

The comparison with 2024 is instructive. Chip-backed borrowing began as a curiosity, moved to investment grade when a rating agency agreed to look at contracted cash flows rather than hardware, and has now returned to a yield a junk-rated issuer would have paid a decade ago. The direction of that travel reflects the size of the financing need, not an improvement in the underlying credit.

There is a second-order effect for the equity holders. A developer that finances chips at 11% needs those chips to earn above that rate for six years, which requires both stable utilization and stable pricing for compute. Volta has an anchor customer in Anthropic, which reduces that risk, but an anchor customer with a six-year agreement is also a counterparty whose own balance sheet is unrated and whose cash needs are large.

The banks declined to comment beyond the deal’s published terms. Neither the loans nor the borrower carry a public rating, so the buyers making the decision are the ones doing their own work.

By Thursday morning the subscription book will say whether that work produced a yes. The answer matters beyond Norway. Roughly a dozen similar financings are in the pipeline for data centers under construction, and their pricing will be set against whatever Volta’s chip tranche clears at.

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